Abstract:
Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health burden with more
than 5million people die of it annually and it is expected to be the 5th leading cause of
morbidity and mortality by 2040, with a high economic cost to health systems.
Developing countries including Ethiopia have insufficient resources to address the CKD
epidemic and its serious long-term complications.The incidence and predictors of chronic
kidney disease (CKD) in most parts of Africa including Ethiopia were largely unknown.
Objective: This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of chronic kidney
diseases among adult hypertensive patients in northwest Amhara comprehensive
specialized hospitals, Ethiopia, 2023.
Methods: A Hospital-based multi-center retrospective follow up study was conducted
among 718 adults hypertensive patients enrolled in chronic follow-up clinic. Log-rank test
and Kaplan Meier curve were used to compare survival probability across different
categories of the participants. A bi-variable and multivariable Gompertz parametric
regression model was fitted to identify predictors of chronic kidney diseases. Factors
having a p-value of <0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were entered to the multivariable
model. Variables that had a p-value of <0.05 with its corresponding 95% confidence level
were deemed to be significant predictors of chronic kidney disease.
Results: A total of 118, 16.43% (95%CI: 13.89-19.33) patients developed CKD, with an
incidence rate of 26 per 1,000 person years (PY) (95%CI: 21.83-31.31) observation time.
Proteinuria (AHR=4.18, 95% CI=2.50-6.98), acute kidney injury (AKI) (AHR=2.12, 95%
CI: 1.44-3.14), age≥65 (AHR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.89-2.51) and dyslipidemia (AHR=1.53,
95% CI: 1.05-2.23) were significant predictors of CKD among hypertensive patients.
Conclusion: In this study, the incidence of CKD among hypertensive patients was
16.43%. The median time to develop CKD was seven years. Further, dyslipidemia, older
age (≥65 years), proteinuria and AKI were accelerated the hazard of developing CKD.
We recommend health professional to give more to HTN patients with the identified the
risk factors
