JOINT PREDICTORS FOR THE PROGRESSION AND TIME TO RECOVERY AMONG PNEUMONIA PATIENTS UNDER TREATMENT IN UNIVERSITY OF GONDAR COMPREHENSIVE SPECIALIZED HOSPITAL: RETROSPECTIVE STUDY DESIGN.

Abstract

Background: - Pneumonia is a lung infection disease caused by various pathogens, a significant threat to global health, especially for the elderly and child. It is the foremost infectious cause of death worldwide and a key factor in antibiotic use. Objective: - The general objective in the current study was to investigate joint predictors of the longitudinal oxygen saturation and body temperature and time to recover among pneumonia patients under treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Gondar, Ethiopia. Method: - A retrospective study was conducted involving 284 pneumonia patients. For the longitudinal analysis, a linear mixed-effects model was utilized, while a Cox proportional hazards model was applied for the survival analysis. A joint model integrating both the bivariate longitudinal and time-to-recovery aspects was used to identify factors influencing the longitudinal changes in oxygen saturation and body temperature, alongside the time to recovery. Result: The result reveals that about 77.5% of patients recovered from pneumonia with a median recovery time of 66 hours (2.5 days). The estimated hazard ratio of pneumonia patients who come from rural areas relative to patients who come from urban areas was indicated; patients from rural residences were 0.997 and 1.1736 times more at risk of recovery as compared to patients who come from urban areas. Higher values of ln-oxygen saturation and body temperature were related with lower and longer recovery time respectively. This indicates there is association between ln-oxygen saturation and body temperature with time to recovery of pneumonia patients. Conclusion: In this study severity, residence, age, comorbidity, family size, Patient occupation and Visit time were found as determinants of the longitudinal measures of the ln-Oxygen saturation and body temperature with time to recovery of under-five and greater than or equal to sixty-five pneumonia patients jointly. Recommendation. Healthcare professionals should use the study's insights to tailor treatment strategies for both children and elderly pneumonia patients to improve patient management and health outcomes. Key words: body temperature, joint model, Oxygen saturation, Pneumonia, survival model