Abstract:
Background: - Pneumonia is a lung infection disease caused by various pathogens, a
significant threat to global health, especially for the elderly and child. It is the foremost
infectious cause of death worldwide and a key factor in antibiotic use.
Objective: - The general objective in the current study was to investigate joint predictors of the
longitudinal oxygen saturation and body temperature and time to recover among pneumonia
patients under treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Gondar,
Ethiopia.
Method: - A retrospective study was conducted involving 284 pneumonia patients. For the
longitudinal analysis, a linear mixed-effects model was utilized, while a Cox proportional
hazards model was applied for the survival analysis. A joint model integrating both the bivariate
longitudinal and time-to-recovery aspects was used to identify factors influencing the
longitudinal changes in oxygen saturation and body temperature, alongside the time to recovery.
Result: The result reveals that about 77.5% of patients recovered from pneumonia with a median
recovery time of 66 hours (2.5 days). The estimated hazard ratio of pneumonia patients who
come from rural areas relative to patients who come from urban areas was indicated; patients
from rural residences were 0.997 and 1.1736 times more at risk of recovery as compared to
patients who come from urban areas. Higher values of ln-oxygen saturation and body
temperature were related with lower and longer recovery time respectively. This indicates there
is association between ln-oxygen saturation and body temperature with time to recovery of
pneumonia patients.
Conclusion: In this study severity, residence, age, comorbidity, family size, Patient occupation
and Visit time were found as determinants of the longitudinal measures of the ln-Oxygen
saturation and body temperature with time to recovery of under-five and greater than or equal to
sixty-five pneumonia patients jointly.
Recommendation. Healthcare professionals should use the study's insights to tailor treatment
strategies for both children and elderly pneumonia patients to improve patient management and
health outcomes.
Key words: body temperature, joint model, Oxygen saturation, Pneumonia, survival model
