Abstract:
Desert Locusts are a kind of primary pests that cause severe damage to the agriculture in Ethiopia,
in Eastern and northeaster zones of Amhara Region in particular. Early forecasting probable sites
of locust outbreaks are very important for crop management and agricultural protection. The
purpose of this study was to produce desert locust outbreaks map and assess the potential impacts
of desert locust outbreak on crop production in the study area. Therefore, high-risk areas were
identified in the study area, and the possible migration patterns of desert locusts were analyzed.
To achieve this goal, the study employed remote-sensing images from multiple sources was used
to establish a prediction model for the potential distribution range of desert locusts. Six variables
have been used to produce the model of desert locust distribution mapping such as soil
temperature, moisture Precipitation, soil, Soil type, Surface temperature, and land cover (NDVI)
for the year 2020. Factors including Precipitation, soil moisture, Soil type, Surface temperature,
soil temperature, and land cover as well as soil bottom temperature climatology were used in this
study. The results showed that the desert locusts were mainly distributed in the north eastern and
south eastern part of north Amhara Region, which was highly consistent with the actual locust
distribution. Hence, this model was able to predict the probable sites of locust outbreak in the
study area, which would provide valuable information to locust control and prevention authorities.
The study was also try to assess the potential impacts of desert locust on crop production. Thus,
interviews were held and the final result revealed that desert locust outbreaks would have greatest
impact on the crop production through damaging food crop that could led famine to the
population. Thus, it could be recommended that several measures can be taken to minimize the
damage from locust swarms. Preventive measures are not adequate at present, but efforts have
been made to reduce the loss at macro scale. Farming in Ethiopia is a means of livelihood for
more than 85% of the population.
