Abstract:
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused
epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the
transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly
mixed crop–livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters
were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental
transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were
estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value
based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was
0·072 (95% CI 0·068–0·076) per day in the crop–livestock production system, whereas this
transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068–0·085) per day. The
reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop–livestock production system was 1·07,
whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a
baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy
Description:
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused
epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the
transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly
mixed crop–livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters
were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental
transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were
estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value
based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was
0·072 (95% CI 0·068–0·076) per day in the crop–livestock production system, whereas this
transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068–0·085) per day. The
reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop–livestock production system was 1·07,
whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a
baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy
