Abstract:
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is contagious, acute viral disease of all cloven-hoofed animals. The disease is
endemic in Ethiopia and causes multiple outbreak every year all over the country. While it is important to
understand to the transmission dynamics of FMD outbreaks for appropriate control intervention, no such study
has been done in Ethiopia. Thus, the aims of this study were to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of
FMD and simulate FMD transmission dynamics of FMD in Amhara region of Ethiopia. Basic reproduction number
(R0) was estimated from age stratified sero-prevalence data through maximum likelihood estimation. A stochastic SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) compartmental FMD model was formulated and parameterized
using literature and age stratified sero-prevalence field data. The R0 of FMD in the region was estimated to be
1.27 (95%CI: 1.20–1.34). The simulation of the SIR model showed only 24% (95% CI: 16–32%) of the infection
introduced in the region caused major outbreaks. Out of the major outbreaks 25% of them tend to persist in the
region. Major outbreaks cause 38.9% (95% CI: 38.8–39.1%) morbidity and 0.0019% (95% CI: 0.0018-0.0020%)
mortality in cattle and the outbreaks stayed for an average of 690 days (95%CI: 655–727). Validation of the
model prediction with farmer’s field experience indicated a fairly similar result especially for the predicted
morbidity caused by outbreaks. This study revealed low transmission of FMD within the Amhara region cattle
population indicating not very high vaccination coverage is needed, if control through vaccination is envisaged
at regional level. However, owing to several simplified assumptions made during the modeling, this conclusion
should be taken cautiously.
Description:
Foot and mouth disease is a contagious, acute viral disease of all
cloven-hoofed animals. The disease is characterized by fever, loss of
appetite, salivation, vesicular eruptions in the mouth, on the feet and
teats and sudden death of young stock (Soetaert, 2010; Stryhn and
Christensen, 2003; Sutmoller et al., 2003; Kitching, 2002). It is one of
the most important trans-boundary animal diseases that causes severe
economic losses due to high morbidity and livestock export trade restrictions imposed on affected countries (FAO-OIE, 2004; Knight et al.,
2013). In Ethiopia, FMD is an endemic disease occurring throughout
the country, with the highest incidence being reported in central
Ethiopia (Ayelet et al., 2009). The economic losses of FMD outbreak in
cattle, arising from milk loss, mortality and draft power loss in Ethiopia
was estimated at an average of USD 76 per affected herd in crop-livestock mixed production system and USD 174 per affected herd in the
pastoral system (Jemberu et al., 2014). Epidemiological mathematica
